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EU Likely to Miss Deadline for 2035 Climate Goal

The European Council has issued a “statement of intent” committing to set the EU’s 2035 emissions reduction target ahead of COP30 in November, despite confirming that it will miss the September deadline required under the Paris Agreement due to unresolved disagreements among member states.

Although no formal target has been finalized, the statement suggests a potential emissions cut of 66.25%–72.5% by 2035 (relative to 2019 levels). This would form part of the EU’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which all Paris Agreement signatories must revise every five years with higher ambition.

The delay stems from ongoing debates around proposed amendments to the EU Climate Law, particularly the European Commission’s July 2025 proposal to cut emissions 90% by 2040. Key points of contention include provisions allowing limited use of international carbon credits after 2030 under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, as well as permitting carbon-intensive industries under the EU ETS to apply domestic carbon removals to offset residual emissions.

A vote on the 2040 target, initially scheduled for September 18, was postponed as consensus was not reached. Discussions are now expected at the European Council summit in late October, focusing on the level of flexibilities and sector-specific provisions.

For the 2035 target, divisions remain: Denmark, Spain, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands are backing the higher 72.5% reduction to align with the 2040 pathway, while Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Hungary support a lower threshold or prefer submitting a target range rather than a fixed figure.

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